Category: Market Update
Market Update: Diverging paths accompanied by seasonally scary messages
Considering the gloomy news last week from central banks in the US and UK, investors enjoyed a decent enough start to November. Following on from the rebound over the second half of October, it has been welcome news that capital markets no longer seem to overly mind when central banks push through yet another set of jumbo rate rises, accompanied by a continuation of gloomy outlook statements.
Market Update: US slows, Europe’s winter outlook improves, UK back to start
The most turbulent October experienced by UK bond markets since 2008 is drawing to an end and one could easily get the impression nothing of significance happened. Sterling is back to where it traded just before that fateful 23 September ‘fiscal event’, and bond yields are likewise roughly back to where they started in Autumn. This is good news: it shows the UK still has effective institutions capable of reversing errors and preventing major collateral damage. Unfortunately, though, some of its credibility in international capital markets has been lost. As a result, the government’s fiscal headroom of what it can...
Market Update: The World Beyond the UK
Given the volatility in UK politics over the week, broader capital markets felt like a sea of calm in comparison. As far as the outcomes from the political side are concerned, markets had already priced in the upside on sterling, based on the belief unfunded tax cuts were no longer on the agenda, but not another leadership hiatus or even the possibility of an early general election.
Market Update: Will the UK Property Downturn Change the Investment Landscape?
In the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-received budget, mortgages were the hot topic. Lenders pulled swathes of mortgage products in expectation of sharply higher interest rates from the Bank of England. When those products were reintroduced a few days later, the rates offered were three to four times higher. The potential effects on consumers and households were well-publicised – and the backlash therein was no doubt a big motivator for the government’s partial U-turn.
Market Update: Reading the Runes of Last Week’s Market Bounce
Market volatility has been in the air all year and given the macroeconomic backdrop this is not at all surprising. A weakening global economy marred by war and labour market-driven supply squeezes, while simultaneously trying to cope with aggressive central bank rate hiking to prevent inflation turning permanent, all makes for the distinct whiff of recession. But volatile markets do not always swipe down, as the beginning of last week showed, nor do they stay volatile forever.
Market Update: Loss of Trust?
Last week provided the evidence for the fragility of capital markets as they grapple with the strain of transitioning from an ultra-low interest rate environment back to the one we knew before the global financial crisis of 2008. A policy mistake around the smaller part of the UK government’s fiscal measures aimed at fending off a looming recession rattled international capital markets to such an extent that it is now likely to create far more headwind than support for the UK’s economy in the winter ahead.
Market Update: Competing Policy Measures Leave Markets Worried
The last two weeks have been sobering for investors world-wide, with all major markets (including bond markets) falling between 5% and 10%. This has come after an encouraging recovery rally over the summer that was driven by falling oil prices, which fuelled expectations that the worst of the inflationary headwinds were behind us, allowing central banks to pause their aggressive monetary tightening course, and that a turnaround in economic fortunes was therefore imminent.
Market Update: The Fed at work and China snubs Putin
Starting with investment concerns, the consequences of a European war continue to dominate our economy and markets, as it does throughout Western Europe and, to some degree Asia. Meanwhile, seemingly unaffected by the rest of the world, the US is blazing its own trail.
Market Update: The End of Eras
With great sadness, we pass from the second Elizabethan age. Our Queen was a constant during this period of intensely rapid change. Across the political spectrum, we can acknowledge her ceaseless responsibility to her people. She retained her dignity as monarch throughout her reign supported by her faith and her humanity that was obvious to all.
Market Update: Waiting for Policy Action
The summer is nearing its end and with it the return of the more typical English late summer climes. It may feel as if markets have taken a hint with their 5-day downdraft until Thursday, although most outsiders will look at the week’s media frenzy and blame the tumble on the truly intimidating outlook for energy bills during the winter heating season.
Market Update: Delicate equilibrium
All eyes were on the world’s central bankers last week, who are guests of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets are particularly eager to hear what Fed chair Jay Powell has to say – hoping that his speech will give hints on the direction of US and global monetary policy.
Market Update: Will a New PM Be Good News for Investors?
We rarely talk about UK politics in our deliberations on the global investment markets. That’s not because we’re not interested. Rather, it is because domestic politics have less of an effect on the broader global assets that we invest in on your behalf.
Market Update: Fear of Missing Out
Investors are feeling FOMO: the “fear of missing out” once again. Last week was a continuation of the trend from the start of July – which has seen a significant boost to both bond and equity markets. Curiously, the good feeling among investors seems unaffected by the bad news all around.
Market Update: Markets Bet on a Perfect Landing
Bad news filled the airwaves last week. Faltering global growth, higher inflation forecasts and rising interest rates set a dour tone – capped off by a geopolitical crisis in Taiwan. UK investors were struck by the Bank of England’s dire warnings: a 13% inflation peak and a protracted recession are now in store for Britons, according to Governor Andrew Bailey. Predicted to last for five quarters, the looming UK recession is set to outlast the one following the global financial crisis in 2008/09.
Market Update: Positive Returns Amidst Negative Sentiment
For a second consecutive quarter, the US economy shrank in real terms. Yet the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday because the US economy is too strong.
Market Update: Economy Weakens but Central Banks Persevere
Global investors tend to be quite US-focused, as the world’s largest economy has an outsized impact on trends across the world. Last week though, attention was on the other side of the Atlantic. European economic data caught the eyes of traders – and unfortunately not for the right reasons. Both consumer and business sentiment surveys indicated unexpected weakness, heralding a downturn across the continent.
Market Update: Too Hot, Too Cold
Investors’ rough ride continued over the last week. Markets are being buffeted by the ups and downs of economic data and the resultant changing expectations for central banks. We had unexpectedly positive UK economic growth during May, while the continued decline in oil and general commodity prices (resources and food) paints a picture of receding inflation pressures.
Market Update: Energy Price Shock Turns Into Central Bank Focal Point
More than two years since the COVID virus hit Europe, it is clear that most peoples’ livelihoods have been affected more by the policy ‘medicine’ than the virus itself. Of course, without those interventions which were needed until vaccinations become prevalent, it most likely would have been the other way around.
Market Update: Linchpin Oil Price
As central banks around the world were busy reasserting their authority and credibility as the guardians of monetary stability, the previous week’s stock market wobble turned into a fully-fledged rout last week. The growth concerns that preoccupied investors morphed into fears that central banks have become so determined to stop inflation from embedding itself that they are prepared to accept that proceeding with monetary tightening countermeasures may indeed lead to a global recession.
Market Update: Reading Between the Lines
After the resurging positive sentiment of past weeks, markets were this week once again showing signs of fragility – the mood was decidely ‘risk off’. We could characterise this as growth scepticism, or more wariness that inflation will require even stronger and swifter central bank policy tightening before it is effectively squeezed out. Last week’s move towards monetary tightening from the European Central Bank (ECB) – even though long anticipated – provided the necessary headlines.