Category: Market Update
Market Update August: Big tech gets bigger while the Fed takes the easy option
In a week where Donald Trump kicked off his re-election campaign in earnest, global investors showed it is indeed “America first”. US equities continue to push at all-time highs, having recovered everything lost in March’s frantic sell-off – and then some.
Market Update August: Fed leaves bond investors with that sinking feeling
Capital markets were mostly steady – if a bit on edge – this week, as they have been for most of August. At least the US maintained positivity, although the extent of gains were not spectacular. Even so, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices surpassed their February peaks in midweek trading, leaving the stock market nosedive of March a distant memory.
Market Update August: COVID II the sequel – as scary as the original?
The pleasures, and then increasing discomfort, of the UK’s unusually broiling August weather offered a welcome distraction from the seemingly never ending COVID news flow of gloominess. As the heatwave came to an end with a thunderous bang, so too did many of the UK’s summer freedoms.
Market Update August: Living with COVID- settling into an interim ‘new normal’
At the other end of the scale, poor returns from Japanese and UK equities confirms the trend of investors preferring long-term growth prospects of the ‘new economy’, versus short term earnings stability or recovery potential (value) of the ‘old economy’. This has much to do with the fact that the yield investors could safely earn...
Market Update August: Summer Sunshine Beckons but Politics Still Casts a Long Shadow
As July ends with stifling temperatures, thoughts can turn to the month ahead. August capital markets can be either quiet or decidedly choppy. As investors go on their summer holidays, daily trade volumes decline and liquidity drops out of the market – meaning even small buying or selling pressures can have outsized effects. Of course, this year we doubt many traders will be planning an August trip to Spain...
PPE = Politics, Pressure & Economics
Earlier in the week, Europe’s top politicians slogged through marathon negotiations to reach a historic deal on a €750bn common budget designed to spur recovery from the deepest recession since World War Two. We cover this in more detail separately below, but suffice to say that investors took it well, with the Euro gaining on other global currencies.
Discomfort of Disappearing Safety Nets
The summer season has started in earnest and yet, unsurprisingly, this year everything feels different. Most of us are relieved restrictions are easing, meaning we can go about our lives more like how we were used to until a few months ago. While in lockdown, many may have reasonably expected that – in return for our sacrifices – we would emerge into a post-COVID environment, with the virus no longer a threat, and with normalities resumed.
Sunak spends big to kick-start the economy
Rishi Sunak’s short time at the Treasury has been a trial by fire. A year ago, the current Chancellor of the Exchequer was Chief Secretary to the Treasury under former Chancellor Sajid Javid. But after Javid’s controversial sacking in February, Sunak’s foot was barely in the door of Number 11 before the global pandemic shuttered Britain’s economy...
2020 Offers Important Lessons…
We are halfway through the most disturbing year in generations and that much-used word won’t go away: unprecedented. Over the course of the first quarter, it became steadily more probable that the coronavirus crisis that had started in China would engulf everything around us. In late February, stock markets finally faced up to the inevitable and nose-dived. Investors’ mad dash for the exit accelerated throughout March, turning the sell-off into a sell-out of tradeable financial assets, resulting in the most rapid stock market crash on record.
Support balances increasing strains – but for how long?
The consolidation in stock markets continues. After a brief sell-off at the beginning of the week, capital markets staged a recovery to leave things almost unchanged from a week ago. All in all, markets are now just slightly above where they were after the significant recovery rally throughout April and May...
More Life Support for Britain’s Economy
After three months of shutdown, Britain is slowly but surely opening up. The government has been keen to stress that this process is only possible because of the steadily falling infection and death rates across the country, but clearly the relaxing of restrictions is also prompted by economic concerns. With pubs, clubs, shops and many other businesses shuttered since the end of March, the UK economy has been on life support. For many businesses, the government’s furlough scheme and emergency loan measures have been the only thing keeping them afloat.
Stock Markets Suffer Altitude Sickness
Reading the news seems much more complicated these days. Our friend and old colleague, Rob Martorana, has lived and worked in New York all his life. An excellent portfolio manager and great thinker about investments, Rob has written a series of articles for the Chartered Financial Analyst group[1] about how to digest news in a way that takes account of its underlying biases. The easy way to do this is to pick a sample from media sources with known biases to judge the central case and the range of interpretations.
May Ends With Optimism & Promise of Further Stimulus
The stock market recovery that started on 23 March – and was widely regarded as little more than a soon-to-falter bear market rally – consolidated further over this last week of May. By now it is either the most pronounced bear market rally in history, or we have indeed already witnessed the turning point of the equity bear market that accompanies recessionary periods...
Big Trouble in Big China
Over the past week, it felt as if the new normal of enforced idleness paired with less stringent lockdown rules and summer weather would lead to a happier mood across Western Europe, including the UK. The same applied for investors, whose portfolios also enjoyed some time in the sunshine. However, the outlook began to cloud over somewhat again towards the end of the week.
US-China Cold war: Threat or blessing?
In the absence of truly effective anti-viral drug treatments against COVID-19, or vaccines (even in the best case) only becoming widely available towards 2021, we cannot seamlessly switch back on what we switched off and many activities that make up considerable parts of our western economies will take much longer to return than a V-shaped recovery would require. This means that the recession the lockdown has caused is likely to last somewhat longer and be more pronounced in sectors that depend on close social proximity...
Market Update: Lock-Down, Open-Up
In April, the virus ended the lives of over 190,000 people across the world. Of those, 13% were in the United Kingdom, nearly 25,000. The UK has been one of the worst affected countries during this pandemic. The US has suffered a similarly heavy death toll, with nearly 58,000 deaths recorded with the coronavirus as a cause...
Market Update: Negative Oil Prices and the Wait for V or U Shaped Recoveries
Investors appear to have been focused on the post covid-19 opportunities, encouraged by the news that Asian nations are slowly getting back to work. In addition, positive data has indicated that the European outbreak has passed its peak. In Europe Germany, Norway, Poland and the Czech Republic have relaxed their lockdowns measures this week.
Market Update: Plotting a Path for Recovery
This week may have been a short week for many but there was no shortage of data to digest as a number of positive news stories started to appear through the Covid-19 haze that has consumed markets in recent times. Whilst the number of deaths continues to rise, the rate of infection in Italy, Spain and Germany appear to be slowing giving hope that the peak may have been reached in areas that had previously been dubbed the epicentre of the virus within Europe. Whilst daily death toll reports from China have been met with wide spread scepticism, markets seem...
Stocks Market Suffer Worst Quarter Since 1987
With most countries still enforcing strict lock downs, there are some early signs of a reduction of new infections in Italy and other European countries. Governments have now started to distribute monies to support society and businesses and China has talked about additional stimulus to ensure economic stability...
Markets Bounce Back Responding to US Stimulus Package
The FTSE 100 soared yesterday as it recorded its biggest one-day rise since 2008, and the second biggest one-day rise ever, climbing 9.1% as US lawmakers agreed a stimulus package worth $2 trn. It wasn’t just the UK market that responded positively as The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 11.4% - its biggest one-day gain since 1933, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index soared 7%, its largest daily rise in four years...