Category: Market Update
Market Update: Employment stats back in the lime light
Summer is officially over, but we are none the wiser regarding the direction of the economy. Or are we? Well, we quite likely are, but just a bit and not enough to know if next month’s equity markets will be higher or lower than right now. Indeed, we never actually know that with a high degree of certainty.
Market Update: Transcontinental growth divergence
We don’t seem to be able to get away from writing about how bond yields have been driving equity markets due to their influence on underlying valuation dynamics. We wrote about it previously, on many occasions over the past two years, and we have to say that last week is no different.
Market Update: Tech stocks back under bond pressure
August has undone much of what July brought to equity investors, yet the latest correction looks more technical than fundamental.
Market Update: Disinflation legs and lags
A week with both lower US inflation and the return of GDP growth in the UK, yet markets traded like a yoyo rather than up. We take a deeper look.
Market Update: Expect the unexpected
Compared with July’s buoyancy, the first week of August has demonstrated markets’ continued fragile balance between optimism and the fundamentals of valuations.
Market Update: Business belies negative data
Equity markets continue to be buoyant after the rate rises in Europe and the US. Some market participants have been calling this the ‘Teflon market’ because nothing sticks to it. We would rather think of it as a sort of running machine; no matter how steep the incline of the treadmill, markets seem able to keep running upwards.
Market Update: Another inflation driver turns over
Last week’s markets have, yet again, revolved around inflation, wages and profit margins. In the UK, we finally got a little of the good news that has been stoking US markets. Inflation wise, June turns out to have been not so bad. Inflation data showed a notable slowing while retail sales were perky, possibly because we were all pinky from the hot weather.
Market Update: Core inflation slowdown equals an upbeat week for equity markets
We wrote at the start of last week that markets had come to expect another round of significant interest rate rises from central banks, and that risk assets such as equities were likely to come under some pressure. At the end of last week, however, equity markets have risen sharply, with most more than reversing their losses of the previous week.
Market Update: Markets sour on news of resilient economy
Last week we commented how the second quarter’s positive stock market returns were driven by a somewhat surprising improvement in investor sentiment. Surprising, because at the end of March there was much fear that the crisis amongst US regional banks would lead to a serious deterioration in lending conditions, leading to a quicker and more pronounced slowdown than had been previously anticipated.
Market Update: A glass half-full half year
Half-way through 2023 and, all in all, things have been fair-to-middling for markets. We’ll have a more detailed run-through of asset class performances in next week’s Weekly, but an assessment of the changing economic and markets landscape over the quarter seem appropriate for this week’s edition.
Market Update: Markets catching up to reality
Following three weeks of ‘not a lot of news’ being good news for stock markets, bad news dented investor sentiment last week. This has coincided with some reversal of global liquidity as the US government is once again stepping up fundraising to replenish its coffers and Pan-European business sentiment surveys ticked down. No surprise then, that risk assets experienced a mild sell-off that reversed some of June’s gains. Hardest hit were China, Europe and the UK, but for inherently different reasons.
Market Update: Market conundrum amid volatile growth
Last week saw equity markets move higher yet, despite central bank hawkishness. We had another 0.25% rate rise from the European Central Bank (ECB) and, although the US Federal Open markets Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged, they gave us strong hints of at least another 0.25% hike in July. They also indicated their expectation for rates to stay higher for longer than many think.
Market Update: Immaculate disinflation sentiment cheers investors
Another positive week in global stock markets, which seems unremarkable given it has been fairly good since the beginning of May. However, looking more closely – as we do – two market dynamics tell us more market participants are warming up to the narrative that bringing inflation under control while still achieving a soft landing for the global economy may be what 2023 brings. First, stock market gains over the past few weeks have been spreading to the mid and small cap market segments, rather than coming from just a handful of mega-cap stocks. Second, falling inflation expectations mean recent...
Market Update: Markets take good news in their stride
In previous weeks, we've noted how the absence of specifically good news meant markets reacted more negatively than expected to the relatively low probability of a US debt default. We pointed out that the more notable event of the weeks have been bond yields once again surging.
Market Update: Debt ceiling angst or simply lack of good news
Compared to last week, markets did not really get much ‘new’ news to digest, and yet this week brought a renewed bout of equity market volatility. Given bond yields experienced even larger moves (up), speculation has been blaming the latest market wobble on the unresolved US government debt ceiling negotiations.
Market Update: Big tech stocks increase is ‘artificial’
Last week we wrote that markets were facing growing risks. Since then, and at the time of writing, equity markets have generally headed higher. Japan has been enjoying a particularly good run with the Nikkei 225 making gains every day since last Wednesday. This has occurred despite some disappointing economic data and a weakening currency (we’ll return to the currency moves in a moment). However, the most notable moves have been in US stocks, with the large-cap tech names doing very well in aggregate.
Market Update: Trust the MPC to rain on May’s parade
After a period where it felt like there was a shortage of news, things are hotting up. Both equity and bond markets are bearing up well generally but, in our estimation, underlying risks have increased since May started.
Market Update: Inflation running out of money
Over the past few weeks, we have observed how markets have been hanging in a fine balance, as evidenced by the rather directionless and decreasingly volatile bond, equity and currency markets. We are not the only ones who see it that way...
Market Update: Prospects of a warm Spring
Focusing on the UK economy, last week’s data told us that while March was cold, the Spring could be getting economically warmer. This morning’s UK retail sales data for March marked another reduction in volumes, partly due to the cold weather, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Not including fuel, the volume of retail goods sold in March dropped by 1% from February. Food price rises continue to outpace price rises in other goods (nobody is fooled by milk price cuts when the price of bananas rises more than 10%).
Market Update: Return of calm bodes well for Spring
Easter lies behind us and the second quarter of the year ahead. Considering how unnerving the first three months of the year were, UK investors in globally-diversified multi-asset portfolios have not fared too badly. Mildly positive returns across the risk spectrum tell the story of another risk storm having passed without sinking global capital markets.