Category: Market Update
Market Update: A rally that requires belief
A good week for US stocks has erased the year’s losses in dollar terms (in sterling terms, they are mildly negative). The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is officially in a bullish trend – passing the 20% up mark from April’s trough. The recovery from last month’s “Liberation Day” sell-off has been extraordinary for most major equity regions, many of whom are still beating the US year-to-date.
Market Update: Markets calm but trouble still bubbles
Despite the India-Pakistan hostilities, markets remained calm this week. Measured price volatility came down substantially although, due to global economic uncertainty, implied future volatility – the cost of insuring your assets against sudden losses – is still relatively high. But investors seem to feel that US trade wars will be sufficiently resolved and growth will resume.
Market Update: No news is good news…
It starts as a pretty good week for global markets. That is despite dire US GDP figures, mixed earnings reports from the biggest US tech companies and, for us, disappointing news that a US-UK trade deal is unlikely to come soon. Investors feel positive because they think the White House chaos has abated, and Trump might now support growth rather than hinder it.
Market Update: Markets Bounce
Capital markets bounced last week and the mood notably improved. Media commentary put this down to Donald Trump’s softer rhetoric on Chinese tariffs, and his affirmation of the US central bank’s (the Federal Reserve’s) independence. Equities and bonds were positively impacted, not just in the US but across developed markets.
Market Update: Volatility drops but uncertainty remains
We head into the long Easter weekend with calmer markets than a week ago – but without any strong rebound. Time off from the tariff drama has helped the mood and eased last week’s liquidity concerns, but there still is not much to get excited about. Better than expected profits from microchip manufacturer TSMC boosted tech stocks, though that was counterbalanced by the earlier news that the US will effectively ban sales of Nvidia’s H20 chips to China.
Market Update: Ceasefire, not truce, in global trade war
After a week of eye-watering ups and downs, stock markets are roughly where they started but still well below where they were before Trump’s April 2nd ‘Liberation Day’. For bond holders, it has been equally volatile but prices are more than slightly down.
Market Update: Trump’s Liberation Day turns into market clear out
Donald Trump’s tariffs upset markets, which were unprepared for their magnitude. The US imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs on major trading partners. Unsurprisingly, this was followed by China’s 34% retaliatory tariff this morning. Global stocks sold off, as investors digest the prospect of a full-blown global trade war. Sharply lower bond yields reflect markets’ downgraded global growth expectations. Just like past growth scares, these are trying times for investors, but we must stay level-headed. Markets often overcorrect to shocks and, as a result, the ensuing recovery is often swift. If you sell risk assets...
Market Update: Tariff ‘stick’ to be followed by ‘fiscal’ carrot?
As most of us are aware, markets have recently been taking one step forward, one step back and this week was no different. Equity markets started with a bit of positivity amid talk that Trump’s April 2nd tariff “Liberation Day” was going to be calibrated and phased. Trump’s unexpected announcement on Thursday of permanent 25% tariffs on autos together with threats of further tariffs should trading partners counter them with retaliatory measures, was directly at odds with the markets’ latest expectations, and so down things came.
Market Update: Bracing for tariff “Liberation Day”
Capital markets were calmer for most of the week, with a little turbulence into the end. Up until Thursday close, stock prices moved higher and measures of intraday volatility fell somewhat, largely thanks to fewer signs of policy upheaval from the US government. The week’s biggest policy event – a meeting of the US Federal Reserve – gave little information that we did not already know or expect. American investors took this as a decent sign and, for the first time in a few weeks, the US was one of the better performers.
Market Update: The return of regional divergence
Once again, the aggregate picture hides a great deal of variation. US stocks have had another down week, while European stocks – mainly defence companies – have performed well, alongside Chinese shares. The background to this was an historic increase in European defence spending, sharply higher bond yields, and continued political volatility from the Trump administration. We are in a period of deep uncertainty – where the market outlook can turn rapidly. In this environment, holding diversified investments is proving crucial once again.
Market Update: Honeymoon ends early
There was no meaningful recovery for US stocks last week, following their cold shower last Friday. By contrast, Europe actually managed to warm a little through last week. Investors’ shift away from the US continues, and markets are no longer enamoured by Donald Trump. We can be pretty confident that the president will react to this, but how – and what effect that might have on global investments – is not clear.
Market Update: Global politics turn business
We start the week on a slightly downbeat note, not borne out of the astounding shifts in US foreign policy, but because US domestic service sector sentiment seems to have sagged. The US 10-year bond yield has dropped back to below 4.5% after a midweek push to 4.6%...
Market Update: Europe First?
Another dramatic week in global politics had rare and fascinating effects on capital markets. The Trump administration’s apparent plan to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal without European input, but leave European nations to foot the bill and bear the political consequences, is considered a nightmare scenario by many politicians on the continent. And yet, European stocks rallied while the US faltered. For the first time in a while, global investors seem more positive about equities outside the world’s largest economy – including booming Chinese tech stocks – than in it.
Market Update: Up and down and on and off
Last week began with, potentially, a very distasteful pill to swallow. On Friday 31st evening, just before 6pm GMT and after European markets had closed, Trump announced another 10% of tariffs on China and new 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the US’ closest and single largest trading partners, all to begin on the following Tuesday.
Market Update: AI upset challenges market status quo
It has been another interesting week in markets, although for different reasons than recently. Most of the major regional stock indices have performed well, but global equities are down in aggregate. This is largely down to the underperformance of Nvidia, following the release of a low-cost, more micro-chip efficient AI model from Chinese start-up DeepSeek.
Market Update: Trump trade still on?
Capital markets were a sea of green in Donald Trump’s first week back in office. Investors’ serenity stands in contrast to the rhetoric and early flurry of policy from the US president. We have said before that markets may not to appreciate the risks of a second Trump presidency, but US positivity – at least for the near-term – is undeniably justified by the real economy. Hopefully, some of that positivity can spread to the gloomier corners of the global picture, most notably Europe.
Market Update: Calmer markets ahead of Trump inauguration
With global stocks bouncing back over 2%, last week was the best of the year! UK investors did not even have to rely on a weak pound to bolster Sterling-based returns. French stocks gained over 4%, while smaller cap stocks in most regions have outperformed larger caps – all good signs for broad-based growth.
Market Update: UK bond yield surge – more than meets the eye
Bond market woes took centre stage again last week. Much of this was driven by the strength of the US economy, as shown by Friday's strong employment data and signs that US consumer services are powering ahead (although, interestingly, wages rises were well-contained). We should bear in mind potential political effects, however, which need to be monitored this year.
Autumn Budget 2024 Recap
The Autumn Budget Statement 2024 introduced a range of changes that could significantly impact wealth planning strategies. From pensions and tax adjustments to shifts in the treatment of business and agricultural assets, the statement calls for individuals with substantial wealth to reassess their long-term financial goals. These changes present challenges and opportunities depending on your personal and financial circumstances.
Market Update: Happy New Year!
We start this year with a condensed Market update, sharing with you a few thoughts about some relevant events over the holiday period and the first few days of 2025. Next week, we will be back to the usual extensive format, bringing you a full account of asset class performance for December and for 2024. In the meantime, we show various asset classes (some of which overlap each other) so readers can get an idea of which areas did best and worst.