Category: Market Update

2020 Offers Important Lessons…

We are halfway through the most disturbing year in generations and that much-used word won’t go away: unprecedented. Over the course of the first quarter, it became steadily more probable that the coronavirus crisis that had started in China would engulf everything around us. In late February, stock markets finally faced up to the inevitable and nose-dived. Investors’ mad dash for the exit accelerated throughout March, turning the sell-off into a sell-out of tradeable financial assets, resulting in the most rapid stock market crash on record.

/ 3rd July 2020

Support balances increasing strains – but for how long?

The consolidation in stock markets continues. After a brief sell-off at the beginning of the week, capital markets staged a recovery to leave things almost unchanged from a week ago. All in all, markets are now just slightly above where they were after the significant recovery rally throughout April and May...

/ 29th June 2020

More Life Support for Britain’s Economy

After three months of shutdown, Britain is slowly but surely opening up. The government has been keen to stress that this process is only possible because of the steadily falling infection and death rates across the country, but clearly the relaxing of restrictions is also prompted by economic concerns. With pubs, clubs, shops and many other businesses shuttered since the end of March, the UK economy has been on life support. For many businesses, the government’s furlough scheme and emergency loan measures have been the only thing keeping them afloat.

/ 22nd June 2020

Stock Markets Suffer Altitude Sickness

Reading the news seems much more complicated these days. Our friend and old colleague, Rob Martorana, has lived and worked in New York all his life. An excellent portfolio manager and great thinker about investments, Rob has written a series of articles for the Chartered Financial Analyst group[1] about how to digest news in a way that takes account of its underlying biases. The easy way to do this is to pick a sample from media sources with known biases to judge the central case and the range of interpretations.

/ 12th June 2020

May Ends With Optimism & Promise of Further Stimulus 

The stock market recovery that started on 23 March – and was widely regarded as little more than a soon-to-falter bear market rally – consolidated further over this last week of May. By now it is either the most pronounced bear market rally in history, or we have indeed already witnessed the turning point of the equity bear market that accompanies recessionary periods...

/ 29th May 2020

Big Trouble in Big China

Over the past week, it felt as if the new normal of enforced idleness paired with less stringent lockdown rules and summer weather would lead to a happier mood across Western Europe, including the UK. The same applied for investors, whose portfolios also enjoyed some time in the sunshine. However, the outlook began to cloud over somewhat again towards the end of the week.

/ 24th May 2020

US-China Cold war: Threat or blessing?

In the absence of truly effective anti-viral drug treatments against COVID-19, or vaccines (even in the best case) only becoming widely available towards 2021, we cannot seamlessly switch back on what we switched off and many activities that make up considerable parts of our western economies will take much longer to return than a V-shaped recovery would require. This means that the recession the lockdown has caused is likely to last somewhat longer and be more pronounced in sectors that depend on close social proximity...

/ 17th May 2020

Market Update: Lock-Down, Open-Up

In April, the virus ended the lives of over 190,000 people across the world. Of those, 13% were in the United Kingdom, nearly 25,000. The UK has been one of the worst affected countries during this pandemic. The US has suffered a similarly heavy death toll, with nearly 58,000 deaths recorded with the coronavirus as a cause...

/ 1st May 2020

Market Update: Negative Oil Prices and the Wait for V or U Shaped Recoveries

Investors appear to have been focused on the post covid-19 opportunities, encouraged by the news that Asian nations are slowly getting back to work.  In addition, positive data has indicated that the European outbreak has passed its peak. In Europe Germany, Norway, Poland and the Czech Republic have relaxed their lockdowns measures this week.

/ 24th April 2020

Market Update: Plotting a Path for Recovery

This week may have been a short week for many but there was no shortage of data to digest as a number of positive news stories started to appear through the Covid-19 haze that has consumed markets in recent times. Whilst the number of deaths continues to rise, the rate of infection in Italy, Spain and Germany appear to be slowing giving hope that the peak may have been reached in areas that had previously been dubbed the epicentre of the virus within Europe. Whilst daily death toll reports from China have been met with wide spread scepticism, markets seem...

/ 17th April 2020

Stocks Market Suffer Worst Quarter Since 1987

With most countries still enforcing strict lock downs, there are some early signs of a reduction of new infections in Italy and other European countries. Governments have now started to distribute monies to support society and businesses and China has talked about additional stimulus to ensure economic stability...

/ 2nd April 2020

Markets Bounce Back Responding to US Stimulus Package

The FTSE 100 soared yesterday as it recorded its biggest one-day rise since 2008, and the second biggest one-day rise ever, climbing 9.1% as US lawmakers agreed a stimulus package worth $2 trn. It wasn’t just the UK market that responded positively as The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 11.4% - its biggest one-day gain since 1933, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index soared 7%, its largest daily rise in four years...

/ 27th March 2020

A Week of Rollercoasters and Government Intervention

Just over a week ago, Boris and Trump seemed to be taking a relaxed approach to tackling the threat of the coronavirus. Since then we have been told all pubs, restaurants, gyms and schools must close and up to 20,000 troops have been placed on standby as part of a ‘Covid support force’. The government has increased its fiscal support against the virus to over £350bn and has now said it will pay up to 80% of staff wages for 3 months for those employees unable to work due to the coronavirus pandemic...

/ 24th March 2020

Market Update: Markets Rise as Global Sell-Off Eases

Not to be out of the limelight for too long, Donald Trump rattled markets further as he delivered what may well be one of the most expensive speeches in history.  The US President announced he was ordering an immediate shut-down of all travel from Europe to the United States from midnight on Friday to try to stop the spread of coronavirus in the US in an extraordinary address to the nation on Wednesday night...

/ 13th March 2020

Market Update: Oil Crash Fuels Sell Off

While many of us spent the weekend dealing with shortages in everyday essentials in our supermarkets in the wake of COVID-19 fears, the financial community woke up this morning to another, different – albeit slightly more familiar type of fear; an oil price war...

/ 9th March 2020

Market Update: Coronavirus & the Impact on Global Markets

After a number of weeks where the markets has largely ignored the possible impacts of the Coronavirus, this week has seen a strong sell off as investors begin to digest the disruption that the COVID-19 virus may cause to global economic activity.  The declines experienced this week are of course concerning, as it remains extremely difficult to predict the future impact COVID-19 will have on global growth and the global population.

/ 28th February 2020

Market Review January 2020

China grabbed the headlines again in January, but this time not for trade. On 31st December, the Chinese authorities notified the World Health Organisation of an outbreak of the Coronavirus in Wuhan City and in doing so, relegated the trade war and the World Economic Forum in Davos to mere sideshows throughout January...

/ 12th February 2020

Market Review December 2019

Global equity markets enjoyed a Santa rally in December as optimism returned to the global trade outlook, policies from central banks remained supportive and investors took the view that ultra-low interest rates would remain in place for longer...

/ 14th January 2020

Market Review November 2019

Equities continued to rally in November – a relatively consistent feature of markets in 2019, despite the multitude of geopolitical risks that investors have faced this year...

/ 13th December 2019

Market Review October 2019

Global stock markets continued to march on in October, with the US market posting a series of new all-time highs amid several positive catalysts including a US interest rate cut, positive news flow around US-China trade negotiations, and a raft of upbeat corporate results. Tensions between the US and China appeared to be mellowing with commentary suggesting that both nations were looking to roll back tariffs on traded goods...

/ 13th November 2019