Category: Market Update
Market Update: Shock, rotation, growth?
Amid shocking global events, the market rotation from large to small cap stocks continues. Will the positive effects for small caps be enough to outweigh the wealth losses for the tech giants?
Market Update: Lower inflation, less profits?
Last week was an interesting week in capital markets. Global stocks are a nudge above where they were last Friday in aggregate, but this hides a great deal of variation. There was a steady climb early in the week, led once again by large US mega-caps, but this completely flipped into the latter days. Smaller stocks suddenly dramatically outperformed, while the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) sold off sharply.
Market Update: New government, same economy
Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results were emphatic, but full of contradictions. Labour won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in history with the lowest ever winning vote share. Britain’s right-wing party collapsed, but the Reform party outflanking it, surged. The new government crushed the old by emphasising the need for change, but its policy agenda emphasises stability and continuity. And the contradiction most relevant to us...
Market Update: The business of politics, politics without policy
This Friday marks the end of the second quarter and the day after the first, and for Biden disastrous, televised debate of the 2024 US Presidential election - yet markets have been reasonably calm. Large institutional investors are in the midst of their calendar driven portfolio rebalances without causing big price moves between asset classes, but there is still time before US markets close for significant intraday moves like the ones we saw on 31st May.
Market Update: Stock market highs don’t feel so high
A record breaking week for equities headlined a very mixed bag of economic and political developments, but there is definite fuel for optimism.
Market Update: Still mostly sticking to the plan
In a week where politics seemed to drive markets, it was central banks and ever-changing economic growth expectations that made the real difference.
Market Update: ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history
Europe’s first rate cut was anticipated by markets as much as last year’s pivot from further rate rises. Will it stimulate capital markets to the same degree?
Market Update: Consolidation
No month end fireworks for May, just dull but solidifying consolidation by increasingly discerning investors focused on the data, not politics (yet).
Market Update: Nvidia versus the Fed
Following the strong upwards surge in stocks and bonds at the beginning of May, capital markets have recently moderated and were mostly flat, to slightly down, overall last week. Britons were preoccupied with Rishi Sunak’s surprise election call – polling now less than six weeks away – but capital markets clearly had bigger things to worry about.
Market Update: Pluses and Minuses
It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was enough to take the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday. Breaking that record made a fairly average week for markets look like a great one.
Market Update: A blooming May for the UK
Global equity markets are rising and the UK is now doing well, the Bank of England is dovish and Sterling is holding up - is political change less worrisome here than elsewhere?
Market Update: Still sticking to the plan
Central bankers give confident message that inflation targets will be met.
Market Update: Inflation, a common side effect of growth
The rose tinted market outlook of the first quarter expected a rebound of inflation, and it’s now showing in the latest data.
Market Update: Market quiet on the Middle Eastern front
Capital markets have corrected at the same time as the conflict in the Middle East intensified, yet the asset price dynamics tell a different story.
Market Update: What the return of volatility tells us
Positive market sentiment is put to the test as US rate cuts seemingly disappear over the horizon and Europe, with less resilient markets, looks very likely to see the first cut in June.
Market Update: Bumpy start to the quarter
After such a strong six months, market volatility returned along with increasing oil prices, are economics and geopolitics or market dynamics to blame?
Market Update: Stick to the plan
Following their policy meetings, the big central banks presented the calm message that their plans are working, and markets are inclined to believe them.
Market Update: The flipside of inflation – growth
Of late European stocks are outshining their US peers even though Europe’s economies are mostly in recession – are diverging interest rates coming?
Market Update: At least currency markets notice the budget
Currencies proved to be the one mildly exciting market dynamic in a week otherwise shining more with what did not happen, rather than with what did.
Market Update: Winners and losers of stabilising yields
The ECB meets this week, and the BoE in two weeks’ time. Interest rate and yield volatility has calmed amid signs that some can now bear the cost of new debt. Is this a sign that we’ve reached an equilibrium?