Category: Market Update
Market Update: Nervous markets ahead of second pivot
Capital markets have started September rather despondently. It feels similar to (though not nearly as bad as) the sell-off that started August, after which stock values quickly recovered. There were risks and headwinds back then, but nothing that significantly dampened the long-term outlook. This is even more true now: there are lots of uncertainties, but little that should materially concern investors.
Market Update: Balancing acts
It was a flat week for global stock values, but with a fair amount of dispersion. US returns were once again weighed down by tech, but the UK and Europe are up over 1% at the time of writing. The overall sluggish picture seems a strange reaction to supportive comments from US Federal Reserve chair Powell and a healthier than expected US economy, but markets are chewing on a few things.
Market Update: Late Summer heatwave
Equity and bond markets got hotter earlier last week. Jerome Powell all but confirms the start of rate cuts, but the US dollar is no longer a beneficiary.
Market Update: Tornado rather than hurricane
After stocks sank in early August, we warned that volatility could ripple on, and the market storm turn into a full-blown hurricane. But last week saw a remarkable dying-down of the volatility, like a whirlwind that passes in an hour: stock markets climbed up all over the world, with no hint of pullback. The rally has been so strong that global stocks are almost exactly where they were at the end of July – before the sharp sell-off.
Market Update: Market correction turns into pothole
Our sign-off the week before last was supposed to be cautiously optimistic – predicting a bumpy ride to a decent destination in markets – but friends told us it read a little negatively. Cue the worst daily loss for the S&P 500 in nearly two years on Monday after a terrible session in Japan, and sharp losses for most other major indices. US recession fears – stoked by a distinctly disappointing jobs report last Friday – formed the backdrop for the sell-off, however, market liquidity concerns emanating from Japan’s actions were the spark.
Market Update: Central bank week
Interest rate policy reflects the differing, yet interconnected, pressures within leading global economies, while signs of a softer US economy make investors impatient for Fed cuts.
Market Update: Don’t fear the rebalance
Investors moving capital from Mag7 for smaller companies makes for bumpy markets, but a shift towards general bearishness is misplaced.
Market Update: Shock, rotation, growth?
Amid shocking global events, the market rotation from large to small cap stocks continues. Will the positive effects for small caps be enough to outweigh the wealth losses for the tech giants?
Market Update: Lower inflation, less profits?
Last week was an interesting week in capital markets. Global stocks are a nudge above where they were last Friday in aggregate, but this hides a great deal of variation. There was a steady climb early in the week, led once again by large US mega-caps, but this completely flipped into the latter days. Smaller stocks suddenly dramatically outperformed, while the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) sold off sharply.
Market Update: New government, same economy
Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results were emphatic, but full of contradictions. Labour won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in history with the lowest ever winning vote share. Britain’s right-wing party collapsed, but the Reform party outflanking it, surged. The new government crushed the old by emphasising the need for change, but its policy agenda emphasises stability and continuity. And the contradiction most relevant to us...
Market Update: The business of politics, politics without policy
This Friday marks the end of the second quarter and the day after the first, and for Biden disastrous, televised debate of the 2024 US Presidential election - yet markets have been reasonably calm. Large institutional investors are in the midst of their calendar driven portfolio rebalances without causing big price moves between asset classes, but there is still time before US markets close for significant intraday moves like the ones we saw on 31st May.
Market Update: Stock market highs don’t feel so high
A record breaking week for equities headlined a very mixed bag of economic and political developments, but there is definite fuel for optimism.
Market Update: Still mostly sticking to the plan
In a week where politics seemed to drive markets, it was central banks and ever-changing economic growth expectations that made the real difference.
Market Update: ECB’s Lagard makes rate cut history
Europe’s first rate cut was anticipated by markets as much as last year’s pivot from further rate rises. Will it stimulate capital markets to the same degree?
Market Update: Consolidation
No month end fireworks for May, just dull but solidifying consolidation by increasingly discerning investors focused on the data, not politics (yet).
Market Update: Nvidia versus the Fed
Following the strong upwards surge in stocks and bonds at the beginning of May, capital markets have recently moderated and were mostly flat, to slightly down, overall last week. Britons were preoccupied with Rishi Sunak’s surprise election call – polling now less than six weeks away – but capital markets clearly had bigger things to worry about.
Market Update: Pluses and Minuses
It was a decent week for investors, with global stocks up around 1% from last Friday. British and European equities finished virtually flat, with the US and China slightly up. The gain for US stocks was not outsized, but it was enough to take the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday. Breaking that record made a fairly average week for markets look like a great one.
Market Update: A blooming May for the UK
Global equity markets are rising and the UK is now doing well, the Bank of England is dovish and Sterling is holding up - is political change less worrisome here than elsewhere?
Market Update: Still sticking to the plan
Central bankers give confident message that inflation targets will be met.
Market Update: Inflation, a common side effect of growth
The rose tinted market outlook of the first quarter expected a rebound of inflation, and it’s now showing in the latest data.