Category: Market Update
Market Update: Rollercoaster for the Jubilee funfair
Party stalls and libations were in full flow for the Platinum Jubilee. But no fairground is complete without some thrilling rides. Over the last month, capital markets chipped in with a rollercoaster of their own: equity indices jumped in the first few days of May, only to sink frighteningly low mid-month. At times it felt like markets were in meltdown, with investors buffeted by fierce global economic headwinds.
Market Update: Talking recession to fight inflation
It has been another rocky ride week for capital markets, with inflation talk increasingly turning into chatter of an ‘inevitable’ recession, prompting the most recent cohort of DIY retail investors to throw in the towel. However, the thin trading volumes, plus the fact there’s no clear directional trend within stock markets, tells us institutional investors are staying put.
Market Update: Bear market fear as another tech bubble deflates
To some investors it will seem the old investor adage of ‘Sell in May and go away’ has once again proven correct, especially when the US S&P500 fell within touching distance of that bear market threshold of -20% last week. However, what makes this particular market correction different to others experienced since the pandemic is that it has disproportionally affected those risk assets considered safe havens when economic growth prospects faltered – namely US tech mega caps and other tech names quoted on the NASDAQ.
Market Update: Market noise is almost deafening
The last week of April was like being on a roller coaster. We had rather hoped that the ride was almost over, but in fact it’s only been getting wilder. For the past five weeks, the asset markets have been displaying greater volatility. These charts area way of demonstrating the phenomena we term asset market “noise and loudness.”
Market Update: Range bound markets – despite the drama
Equity markets have been range-bound through the past few weeks, but it does not feel like it. Volatility is at its highest since the nasty period in March 2020, which always raises our perceptions of potential downside. But the volatility is not too surprising given the overall mix of news and economic data updates.
Market Update: Spring In The Air?
Surprisingly positive corporate sentiment data across Europe last week indicated that consumer demand may not be as significantly impacted by the war in Ukraine as markets had been pricing in. On the other hand, there are signs in the US and the UK that consumers are feeling rather more pressure on their household budgets from rising energy and housing prices than anticipated.
Market Update: Easter Review and Outlook
The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was reported at 7% in the UK, 8.5% in the US and even Germany recorded 7.3%. These are heights not seen for 40 years and were unsurprisingly front and centre of this week’s news flow. While equity market investments have historically demonstrated their inflation-hedging characteristics, the fact that investors appeared to shrug off these new peaks may well point to the belief that this is about as high as inflation is likely to get.
Market Update: Q2 Begins with QT Top of the Agenda
In aggregate, global markets have managed a decent enough bounce since the onset of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the awfulness of the news from the area has ceased to impact markets greatly. We have returned to worrying about the resurgence of COVID-19 in China, along with its impacts on the global supply chain and on overall global growth, and worrying about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its plans for tightening US monetary policy.
Market Update: Yield curve inversion – no April fool
While UK consumers braced themselves for a surge in their cost of living – as the UK’s energy price cap resets and rises a staggering 54% – investors experienced a quieter week, which once again saw gains in equity markets, while bond market valuations suffered from rising yields.
Market Update: Bank of England the only fan of Sunak’s spring budget?
Budget announcements are inherently political affairs. Even so, Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement was a particularly political broadcast. The Chancellor talked up the 5p per litre cut to fuel duty with the fervour of a vegetable market stallholder (By contrast, Germany just slashed a litre of petrol by 30 cents), as he did with the rise in the National Insurance Contributions threshold. Reminding MPs of his avowed fiscal responsibility, he noted the fuel tax cut would last for only one year.
Market Update: Changing Tides…
Last time we reminded portfolio investors of the importance of making sure that long-term investment decision-making is not overly influenced by short-term market fluctuations. At Vizion Wealth, we aim to ensure portfolios remain positioned appropriately, and are fine-tuned when medium-term changes in the economic and market outlook either necessitate adjustments or indeed present new opportunities.
Market Update: Market and investment activity update
For the last few weeks, we have regularly had to caveat our commentary with the phrase “as we write”. The chart below shows how much the German DAX benchmark equity index (which tracks the top 40 German companies) has on average moved every 30 minutes over the past year:
Market Update: A Double Edged Sword
During the course of last week, the impacts of the war on global financial assets changed in nature. Over the past weeks, we wrote that minor sanctions were a help for asset prices even if the sanctions did not match the level of outrage. Starting last Sunday, the European Union (EU), US and UK imposed new sanctions almost every day. Perhaps inevitably, this has resulted in equity market weakness.
Market Update: Back to the Past
As this week’s title suggests, for some of us it invokes memories of the cold war era of the West vs the USSR in the ‘70s and ‘80s. It is even more remarkable then, that at the time of writing, stock markets have rallied back to roughly where they stood this time last week. The same cannot be said about Russian asset prices, which have roughly halved since last autumn as the chart below illustrates. Perhaps this indicates who markets believe will ultimately pay for Putin’s megalomania.
Special Market Update: Russia Invades Ukraine
Given the devastating news today, we would like to express our utmost concern for the people of Ukraine and of course, our thoughts and wishes are with them. It is our duty as advisers to comment on the economic and financial impact of geopolitical news, but we do so with the utmost respect for the broader context and the devastating impact the current situation is having on people’s lives.
Special Market Update: Putin’s Recognition of Donbas
Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine reached a new level this week after Russia’s president Putin officially recognised the two self-proclaimed separatist ‘republics’ in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Most importantly, he ordered official troops to move in for what he declared to be ‘peacekeeping operations’. This has triggered the West to announce a stepping up of sanctions. Meanwhile Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Putin had merely "legalised" troops already present in the republics.
Market Update: Investment Climate Change
Stock markets around the world continued their volatile trading pattern over the past week, although compared with January, trending slightly up rather than down. Bond markets, on the other hand, continued to retreat as yields continued to rise. This type of market action has now become characteristic for capital markets this year, as they experience their very own climate change, now that the coronavirus appears to have lost its lethal impact on the majority of the population.
Market Update: The Lagarde Pivot Hits Insecure Markets
We made the case last month that we disagree with the market maxim that “How January goes, so goes the year”, at least for 2022. After a disappointing January for investors, February made a promising start, only to revert to last month’s wild down and up trading pattern towards the end of the week. This was despite the week not having been dominated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) or Russian manoeuvres (admittedly Boris Johnson was still big news – but only in the UK).
Market Update: Taper Tantrum 2.0 fears rattle markets
The unnerving start to the year escalated this week, with many lay observers attributing market volatility to the rising possibility of war between Russia and Ukraine. But as outlined in the video market update we posted on Tuesday, while political tensions are not helping markets (nor energy prices), the heart of the market rout lays with the re-emerging determination of central banks to fight inflation through monetary tightening. Markets are concerned central bankers, namely the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have veered from downplaying the inflation threat to overreacting, particularly now, when the economic temperature is coming back down on its...
Market Update: Markets caught between hoping and dreading
The scandals seem to keep coming for Boris Johnson, with several Tory MPs openly calling for his resignation. Betting markets now have the Prime Minister odds-on to resign this year, and discussion is rife about the government’s future. But capital markets took no notice. Indeed, UK assets outperformed on the week, with both the FTSE 100 and the value of sterling finishing higher.