Category: Market Update
Market Update: How negative are yields?
Investors chase returns. That statement may seem too obvious to be interesting, but over the last decade it has had a special significance. For a year and a half now, central banks around the world have pinned interest rates down and poured historic amounts of liquidity into the global financial system. But the era of loose monetary policy long predates the pandemic
Market Update: Don’t Look Down
Global equities have been on a pretty rapid ascent since the start of the year. This week the world’s investors had a bout of looking down, and a mild attack of vertigo. This dizzyness has been prompted by some reasonable worries. Do we have enough food (earnings growth) to carry on? Is the strong tailwind (in the form of liquidity) about to turn into a headwind? Has one of our party (China) already started slipping back down?
Market Update: Transition Uncertainties
The great British summer may have struggled to materialise so far, but the end of the first half of the year always brings an element of sunny optimism. We will comment on market and investment returns in more detail next week, when the data has settled, but after what proved a quite decent 2020 for investors, the first half of 2021 has again left investors with plenty to be positive about.
Market Update: Moderating Expectations…
The seemingly never-ending pandemic-induced restrictions and uncertainty is making the forward planning of summer activities quite precarious and frustrating at times. That capital markets have recently borne fewer surprises than the planning of our summer holidays is a rare event and should be cherished – assuming it is not simply the calm before the next storm.
Market Update: Investors try to make sense of the Fed’s ‘dot-plot’
The biggest event of the week took place on Wednesday, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concluded its two-day Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting, where it discussed economy policy and its latest projections on inflation and interest rates. Leading up to Wednesday, we were asking ourselves the question “what will the Fed change?”. In essence the choices were “nothing”, “a bit”, or “more than a bit”. All of us were somewhere between “nothing” and “a bit”. The Fed delivered “a bit”.
Market Update: Hazy as Carbis Bay
The G7 meeting in St. Ives’ Carbis Bay was rightly the centre of attention in the UK this week and looks to centre on Europe’s leaders cosying up to a much more loveable US administration, at the same time as trying not to mention Brexit too much.
Market Update: Going up Sideways
May’s returns numbers are in, and the headlines are as follows: a rotation from tech to financials – and from value to growth – as well as a bit more downward pressure on bonds. We have included our usual ‘in review’ table and monthly comments below. Overall, it was a quiet month...
Market Update: Touch of Goldilocks at the end of May
After a strong April, May felt somewhat of a mixed bag for investors, particularly when stock markets suffered a correction in the middle of the month. However, as the month draws to a close, it is mostly only cryptocurrency holders and those who had banked on a warm and sunny May in Northern Europe who are still feeling the pain.
Market Update: Europe’s Beacon of Hope Shines Light on Old Problems
After a long quiet spell, Europe is capturing investor interest once again, with the green shoots of a recovery now coming through. After a desperately slow start, vaccination programmes on the continent have stepped up greatly, with ever more jabs set to be delivered in the coming weeks. That, combined with warmer weather and a slowing spread of the virus, is thawing the freeze on economic activity as businesses start to reopen...
Market Update: Market vertigo galore!
Markets have certainly lost a bit of that exuberance displayed in recent weeks. However, the risen inflation expectations that have been blamed for the sell-off, are now merely – at last – reflecting what the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had told markets to expect since the beginning of the year. Moreover, the global economy continues to motor towards a post pandemic recovery boom. Therefore, we view this sell-off as more to do with market participants experiencing a wave of vertigo, rather than a fundamental change of direction.
Market Update: The UK bounces back – or is it all just politics?
There has been a great political awakening across the world in recent years. The issues of the day have become visceral divisions. These arguments have had significant impacts on all aspects of our lives, including capital markets. In the UK, this has been most evidently played out in the great Brexit drama which, aside from its impacts on foreign investment and asset valuations, has been the main driving force behind the value of Sterling.
Market Update: Doubling of Earnings Leaves Markets Cold
After last week’s lull in global equity markets, most regions recovered their previous highs this week, albeit in somewhat lacklustre trading patterns. Just as there were several reasons why markets were in a bad mood last week, there are many reasons for the more positive outlook this week.
Market Update: ‘Risk On’ Pauses While the Real World Keeps Accelerating
Equity markets finally paused in their upward trend this week, with the most speculative assets like Bitcoin experiencing their first serious setback since February. It was hard to pin the cause on any one specific development, although falling oil prices got their share of blame...
New Bond News Gives Green Light for Equity Investors
This week, developments in the bond markets may be of more significance for investors, over the fact that equities continued to do well. On Thursday, yields of long maturity bonds across global developed markets fell quite sharply, at the same time as economic data showed resoundingly strong activity...
Stock Markets Firmly Looking Ahead
In our private lives, the first few months of 2021 were much the same as 2020 – unfortunately. Britain, and indeed the world, suffered more COVID cases, more fatalities and, once again, tighter restrictions. For investors, though, it was a different story. Despite a global economy frozen in motion and the deepest recession ever recorded, stock markets did very well last year, with some major indices climbing to new highs.
Market Update: The first quarter of 2021 was no April fool…
It may have been April Fools’ Day, but ignore the ill-fated corporate PR stunts (Voltswagen!). The fact is that the first quarter of 2021 has brought genuine good news for UK-based investors with exposure to global stock markets. Equity markets have generally resumed an upward trajectory, while low risk assets, especially long maturity bonds, have sustained meaningful losses...
Market Update: Moving on – towards a post pandemic world
It has been another week of markets feeling on edge, without going anywhere. Markets seem to have caught a bit of worry about the passage of growth, oddly just as the wider populace gets more confident and the recent headwind of rising bond yields abated.
Tug of War – Bonds vs Equities
Next week will mark the anniversary of the turning point of the 2020 COVID stock market crash. Investors looking at their one-year portfolio returns may well be astonished to find double-digit return figures, ranging from around 15% for lower risk strategies to close to 50% for pure global equity portfolios.
Market Update: Recalibrations…
Stock markets around the world have had another choppy week, but this time there was more up than down across the board and bonds yields stopped their upwards trend – at least for a while. The general upward trend notwithstanding, there was a lot of rotation and counter rotation between different market segments...
Market Update: A Tactical Budget
Rishi Sunak’s second Budget Statement was a hotly anticipated affair. After setting out the roadmap to navigate the COVID crisis, the Chancellor was able to mark down the route out of economic crisis. The pandemic has left a black hole in Britain’s public finances and, while vaccines and gently easing restrictions will help get things back on track, there is no doubt that the UK economy still needs a big helping hand from the Treasury.