Category: Market Update
Market Update: Reading Trump’s Tea Leaves
It was an up and down week for global stocks. Markets initially showed confidence in Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda – but pulled back when Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested interest rate cuts might have to be gradual. The S&P 500 was flat for most of the week but tumbled this afternoon amid rising bond yields. This came against a backdrop of strong gains last week, a sharply higher dollar and weak equity markets in most other regions.
Market Update: Known winner, unknown outcomes
For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US, but less so for Europe and the UK, whose stocks had a tougher week. This side of the Atlantic, equities and currencies sold off and underperformed rampant US markets by a remarkable 5%.
Market Update: US, not UK battening down the hatches
Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news last week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote theweek before last that traders were bracing for a consequential and uncertain election – which could create volatility as trading volumes thin. That is exactly what we see happening. The good news is that the underlying economic picture has not changed. The bad news is that nerves will stay high until we know who the next US president will be – and we might...
What the Autumn Budget Means for You
Rachel Reeves' first Budget as Chancellor had the rumour mill in overdrive based on the tax uplift required to fill a blackhole in the public finances. The biggest single tax change from the budget designed to address that blackhole was a 2% increase in the rate of employer NICs. Many of the rumoured changes, such as a return of the pension lifetime allowance, changes to pension tax relief, investment incentives for EIS & VCTs or a cap on pensions tax-free cash failed to materialise, which is good news for individuals saving for retirement.
Market Update: Markets in brace position
Capital markets feel more tense than at any point since the beginning of September. Global stocks sold off slightly last week, but without sharp moves. It would be wrong to say that investors are fearful. In general, the global economic outlook is still positive despite geopolitical risks. It feels more like markets bracing for some big events. Britons anxiously await the autumn budget and, after a long build-up of mixed messages, it would help to just get it over with.
Market Update: No news is good news…
Capital markets quietened down last week. Global stocks are up from a week ago, and there is a sense that anxieties are fading. Risks and uncertainties have not gone away completely, but their short-term impacts on risk assets look smaller. There was a lack of bad new news, while the old news seemed less negative. That has allowed investors to focus on more concrete details.
Market Update: Buy the rumour, sell the fact
For a week with so many competing market narratives, global stocks were fairly stable. However, the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs and is doing so as we write. Broadly, US equities were stronger despite higher than expected inflation data, while the UK and Europe are lower on the week (at the time of writing) thanks the effect of dividend payments, currency moves and some policy uncertainty.
Market Update: Global Growth Tailwinds
Rarely do non-US stories dominate global capital markets as much as last week. China announced a double shot of economic stimulus that surprised most – and Chinese stocks surged in response. European equities, particularly luxury goods brands, also jumped, in a hopeful sign of what returning Chinese consumer demand could do for global growth. Strangely, this was accompanied by falling oil prices. That is the opposite of what you would expect, given the (supposedly) improved outlook for global demand and the supply risks from escalating Middle Eastern tensions. The good news is that lower energy prices should themselves support growth....
Market Update: Central bank Pivot 2.0
Central banks dominated the narrative last week. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 50 basis point cut to interest rates was by far the biggest market news, surprising some who expected a smaller move. Investors took the news well, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs in response. Then came the Bank of England’s (BoE) non-decision on Thursday. UK rates were held steady, but Governor Andrew Bailey strongly suggested that they will fall again at the BoE’s November meeting.
Market Update: Market fears fading
Capital markets picked themselves up last week. Global stocks are up, recovering well from a tough start to September. At the time of writing, not all of the week before last’s losses have been recovered, but markets seem to breathe a sigh of relief. This was particularly felt in the US, where stocks gained every day of the week at a remarkably consistent pace. We said before that the early September sell-off felt a little like the one that began at the height of summer – more about nerves than underlying outlook.
Market Update: Nervous markets ahead of second pivot
Capital markets have started September rather despondently. It feels similar to (though not nearly as bad as) the sell-off that started August, after which stock values quickly recovered. There were risks and headwinds back then, but nothing that significantly dampened the long-term outlook. This is even more true now: there are lots of uncertainties, but little that should materially concern investors.
Market Update: Balancing acts
It was a flat week for global stock values, but with a fair amount of dispersion. US returns were once again weighed down by tech, but the UK and Europe are up over 1% at the time of writing. The overall sluggish picture seems a strange reaction to supportive comments from US Federal Reserve chair Powell and a healthier than expected US economy, but markets are chewing on a few things.
Market Update: Late Summer heatwave
Equity and bond markets got hotter earlier last week. Jerome Powell all but confirms the start of rate cuts, but the US dollar is no longer a beneficiary.
Market Update: Tornado rather than hurricane
After stocks sank in early August, we warned that volatility could ripple on, and the market storm turn into a full-blown hurricane. But last week saw a remarkable dying-down of the volatility, like a whirlwind that passes in an hour: stock markets climbed up all over the world, with no hint of pullback. The rally has been so strong that global stocks are almost exactly where they were at the end of July – before the sharp sell-off.
Market Update: Market correction turns into pothole
Our sign-off the week before last was supposed to be cautiously optimistic – predicting a bumpy ride to a decent destination in markets – but friends told us it read a little negatively. Cue the worst daily loss for the S&P 500 in nearly two years on Monday after a terrible session in Japan, and sharp losses for most other major indices. US recession fears – stoked by a distinctly disappointing jobs report last Friday – formed the backdrop for the sell-off, however, market liquidity concerns emanating from Japan’s actions were the spark.
Market Update: Central bank week
Interest rate policy reflects the differing, yet interconnected, pressures within leading global economies, while signs of a softer US economy make investors impatient for Fed cuts.
Market Update: Don’t fear the rebalance
Investors moving capital from Mag7 for smaller companies makes for bumpy markets, but a shift towards general bearishness is misplaced.
Market Update: Shock, rotation, growth?
Amid shocking global events, the market rotation from large to small cap stocks continues. Will the positive effects for small caps be enough to outweigh the wealth losses for the tech giants?
Market Update: Lower inflation, less profits?
Last week was an interesting week in capital markets. Global stocks are a nudge above where they were last Friday in aggregate, but this hides a great deal of variation. There was a steady climb early in the week, led once again by large US mega-caps, but this completely flipped into the latter days. Smaller stocks suddenly dramatically outperformed, while the so-called ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) sold off sharply.
Market Update: New government, same economy
Keir Starmer was not wrong when he called this an historic victory. It is the Labour party’s first election win since 2005, ending 14 years of Conservative rule and handing the latter party its worst ever defeat. The results were emphatic, but full of contradictions. Labour won one of the largest parliamentary majorities in history with the lowest ever winning vote share. Britain’s right-wing party collapsed, but the Reform party outflanking it, surged. The new government crushed the old by emphasising the need for change, but its policy agenda emphasises stability and continuity. And the contradiction most relevant to us...