Category: Market Update
Market Update: Waiting for Policy Action
The summer is nearing its end and with it the return of the more typical English late summer climes. It may feel as if markets have taken a hint with their 5-day downdraft until Thursday, although most outsiders will look at the week’s media frenzy and blame the tumble on the truly intimidating outlook for energy bills during the winter heating season.
Market Update: Delicate equilibrium
All eyes were on the world’s central bankers last week, who are guests of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets are particularly eager to hear what Fed chair Jay Powell has to say – hoping that his speech will give hints on the direction of US and global monetary policy.
Market Update: Will a New PM Be Good News for Investors?
We rarely talk about UK politics in our deliberations on the global investment markets. That’s not because we’re not interested. Rather, it is because domestic politics have less of an effect on the broader global assets that we invest in on your behalf.
Market Update: Fear of Missing Out
Investors are feeling FOMO: the “fear of missing out” once again. Last week was a continuation of the trend from the start of July – which has seen a significant boost to both bond and equity markets. Curiously, the good feeling among investors seems unaffected by the bad news all around.
Market Update: Markets Bet on a Perfect Landing
Bad news filled the airwaves last week. Faltering global growth, higher inflation forecasts and rising interest rates set a dour tone – capped off by a geopolitical crisis in Taiwan. UK investors were struck by the Bank of England’s dire warnings: a 13% inflation peak and a protracted recession are now in store for Britons, according to Governor Andrew Bailey. Predicted to last for five quarters, the looming UK recession is set to outlast the one following the global financial crisis in 2008/09.
Market Update: Positive Returns Amidst Negative Sentiment
For a second consecutive quarter, the US economy shrank in real terms. Yet the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday because the US economy is too strong.
Market Update: Economy Weakens but Central Banks Persevere
Global investors tend to be quite US-focused, as the world’s largest economy has an outsized impact on trends across the world. Last week though, attention was on the other side of the Atlantic. European economic data caught the eyes of traders – and unfortunately not for the right reasons. Both consumer and business sentiment surveys indicated unexpected weakness, heralding a downturn across the continent.
Market Update: Too Hot, Too Cold
Investors’ rough ride continued over the last week. Markets are being buffeted by the ups and downs of economic data and the resultant changing expectations for central banks. We had unexpectedly positive UK economic growth during May, while the continued decline in oil and general commodity prices (resources and food) paints a picture of receding inflation pressures.
Market Update: Energy Price Shock Turns Into Central Bank Focal Point
More than two years since the COVID virus hit Europe, it is clear that most peoples’ livelihoods have been affected more by the policy ‘medicine’ than the virus itself. Of course, without those interventions which were needed until vaccinations become prevalent, it most likely would have been the other way around.
Market Update: Public Sentiment vs Economic Realities
Through much of this second quarter, the financial market narrative has been about inflation. Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) informed us that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 9% in April to 9.1% in May, while the Retail Price Index (RPI) rose 11.7% compared to May 2021. UK inflation-linked benefits for 2023 – including pensions – will be determined by September’s data sets, and means the state pension will almost certainly increase by more than 10%.
Market Update: Linchpin Oil Price
As central banks around the world were busy reasserting their authority and credibility as the guardians of monetary stability, the previous week’s stock market wobble turned into a fully-fledged rout last week. The growth concerns that preoccupied investors morphed into fears that central banks have become so determined to stop inflation from embedding itself that they are prepared to accept that proceeding with monetary tightening countermeasures may indeed lead to a global recession.
Market Update: Reading Between the Lines
After the resurging positive sentiment of past weeks, markets were this week once again showing signs of fragility – the mood was decidely ‘risk off’. We could characterise this as growth scepticism, or more wariness that inflation will require even stronger and swifter central bank policy tightening before it is effectively squeezed out. Last week’s move towards monetary tightening from the European Central Bank (ECB) – even though long anticipated – provided the necessary headlines.
Market Update: Rollercoaster for the Jubilee funfair
Party stalls and libations were in full flow for the Platinum Jubilee. But no fairground is complete without some thrilling rides. Over the last month, capital markets chipped in with a rollercoaster of their own: equity indices jumped in the first few days of May, only to sink frighteningly low mid-month. At times it felt like markets were in meltdown, with investors buffeted by fierce global economic headwinds.
Market Update: Talking recession to fight inflation
It has been another rocky ride week for capital markets, with inflation talk increasingly turning into chatter of an ‘inevitable’ recession, prompting the most recent cohort of DIY retail investors to throw in the towel. However, the thin trading volumes, plus the fact there’s no clear directional trend within stock markets, tells us institutional investors are staying put.
Market Update: Bear market fear as another tech bubble deflates
To some investors it will seem the old investor adage of ‘Sell in May and go away’ has once again proven correct, especially when the US S&P500 fell within touching distance of that bear market threshold of -20% last week. However, what makes this particular market correction different to others experienced since the pandemic is that it has disproportionally affected those risk assets considered safe havens when economic growth prospects faltered – namely US tech mega caps and other tech names quoted on the NASDAQ.
Market Update: Market noise is almost deafening
The last week of April was like being on a roller coaster. We had rather hoped that the ride was almost over, but in fact it’s only been getting wilder. For the past five weeks, the asset markets have been displaying greater volatility. These charts area way of demonstrating the phenomena we term asset market “noise and loudness.”
Market Update: Range bound markets – despite the drama
Equity markets have been range-bound through the past few weeks, but it does not feel like it. Volatility is at its highest since the nasty period in March 2020, which always raises our perceptions of potential downside. But the volatility is not too surprising given the overall mix of news and economic data updates.
Market Update: Spring In The Air?
Surprisingly positive corporate sentiment data across Europe last week indicated that consumer demand may not be as significantly impacted by the war in Ukraine as markets had been pricing in. On the other hand, there are signs in the US and the UK that consumers are feeling rather more pressure on their household budgets from rising energy and housing prices than anticipated.
Market Update: Easter Review and Outlook
The annual rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) was reported at 7% in the UK, 8.5% in the US and even Germany recorded 7.3%. These are heights not seen for 40 years and were unsurprisingly front and centre of this week’s news flow. While equity market investments have historically demonstrated their inflation-hedging characteristics, the fact that investors appeared to shrug off these new peaks may well point to the belief that this is about as high as inflation is likely to get.
Market Update: Q2 Begins with QT Top of the Agenda
In aggregate, global markets have managed a decent enough bounce since the onset of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the awfulness of the news from the area has ceased to impact markets greatly. We have returned to worrying about the resurgence of COVID-19 in China, along with its impacts on the global supply chain and on overall global growth, and worrying about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its plans for tightening US monetary policy.