Market Update: Plugging the holes
The Autumn Statement, budget-in-all-but-name, had been sign posted as very likely to bring bad news to UK taxpayers, as the third Conservative government of this parliament changed course from Trussonomics back to Rishinomics. What was announced in the end was less bad than what had been leaked beforehand, which is how bad news tend to be sold. With fiscal responsibility returning to the UK, and with it a certain predictability in policymaking, this Autumn ‘budget’ was perceived as quite sensible from a capital market perspective with sterling and bond yields closing within their most recent trading ranges.
2022 Autumn Budget Highlights
Jeremy Hunt delivered his first statement as Chancellor of the Exchequer at a time of great challenge for the UK and global economies with the backdrop of sky-high inflation, recessionary warnings, high interest rates and the ongoing war in Ukraine. In his first few days in office, he had already reversed most of the measures announced in his predecessor's September Mini Budget. He has now set out a series of tax rises and allowance freezes & cuts to help combat the ‘black hole’ of public spending set out in the September mini-budget.
Market Update: Signs of ‘peak inflation’ emboldens markets
There were three big market-moving stories last week: the US midterm elections, the latest crash in the surreal world of crypto currencies, and the release of US inflation data for October. By Friday, it was the lower-than-expected inflation data that dominated in terms of market activity.
Market Update: Diverging paths accompanied by seasonally scary messages
Considering the gloomy news last week from central banks in the US and UK, investors enjoyed a decent enough start to November. Following on from the rebound over the second half of October, it has been welcome news that capital markets no longer seem to overly mind when central banks push through yet another set of jumbo rate rises, accompanied by a continuation of gloomy outlook statements.
Market Update: US slows, Europe’s winter outlook improves, UK back to start
The most turbulent October experienced by UK bond markets since 2008 is drawing to an end and one could easily get the impression nothing of significance happened. Sterling is back to where it traded just before that fateful 23 September ‘fiscal event’, and bond yields are likewise roughly back to where they started in Autumn. This is good news: it shows the UK still has effective institutions capable of reversing errors and preventing major collateral damage. Unfortunately, though, some of its credibility in international capital markets has been lost. As a result, the government’s fiscal headroom of what it can...
Market Update: Will the UK Property Downturn Change the Investment Landscape?
In the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-received budget, mortgages were the hot topic. Lenders pulled swathes of mortgage products in expectation of sharply higher interest rates from the Bank of England. When those products were reintroduced a few days later, the rates offered were three to four times higher. The potential effects on consumers and households were well-publicised – and the backlash therein was no doubt a big motivator for the government’s partial U-turn.
Market Update: Reading the Runes of Last Week’s Market Bounce
Market volatility has been in the air all year and given the macroeconomic backdrop this is not at all surprising. A weakening global economy marred by war and labour market-driven supply squeezes, while simultaneously trying to cope with aggressive central bank rate hiking to prevent inflation turning permanent, all makes for the distinct whiff of recession. But volatile markets do not always swipe down, as the beginning of last week showed, nor do they stay volatile forever.
Market Update: Loss of Trust?
Last week provided the evidence for the fragility of capital markets as they grapple with the strain of transitioning from an ultra-low interest rate environment back to the one we knew before the global financial crisis of 2008. A policy mistake around the smaller part of the UK government’s fiscal measures aimed at fending off a looming recession rattled international capital markets to such an extent that it is now likely to create far more headwind than support for the UK’s economy in the winter ahead.
Market Update: Competing Policy Measures Leave Markets Worried
The last two weeks have been sobering for investors world-wide, with all major markets (including bond markets) falling between 5% and 10%. This has come after an encouraging recovery rally over the summer that was driven by falling oil prices, which fuelled expectations that the worst of the inflationary headwinds were behind us, allowing central banks to pause their aggressive monetary tightening course, and that a turnaround in economic fortunes was therefore imminent.
Market Update: The Fed at work and China snubs Putin
Starting with investment concerns, the consequences of a European war continue to dominate our economy and markets, as it does throughout Western Europe and, to some degree Asia. Meanwhile, seemingly unaffected by the rest of the world, the US is blazing its own trail.
Market Update: The End of Eras
With great sadness, we pass from the second Elizabethan age. Our Queen was a constant during this period of intensely rapid change. Across the political spectrum, we can acknowledge her ceaseless responsibility to her people. She retained her dignity as monarch throughout her reign supported by her faith and her humanity that was obvious to all.
Market Update: Waiting for Policy Action
The summer is nearing its end and with it the return of the more typical English late summer climes. It may feel as if markets have taken a hint with their 5-day downdraft until Thursday, although most outsiders will look at the week’s media frenzy and blame the tumble on the truly intimidating outlook for energy bills during the winter heating season.
Market Update: Delicate equilibrium
All eyes were on the world’s central bankers last week, who are guests of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets are particularly eager to hear what Fed chair Jay Powell has to say – hoping that his speech will give hints on the direction of US and global monetary policy.
Market Update: Will a New PM Be Good News for Investors?
We rarely talk about UK politics in our deliberations on the global investment markets. That’s not because we’re not interested. Rather, it is because domestic politics have less of an effect on the broader global assets that we invest in on your behalf.
Market Update: Fear of Missing Out
Investors are feeling FOMO: the “fear of missing out” once again. Last week was a continuation of the trend from the start of July – which has seen a significant boost to both bond and equity markets. Curiously, the good feeling among investors seems unaffected by the bad news all around.
Market Update: Positive Returns Amidst Negative Sentiment
For a second consecutive quarter, the US economy shrank in real terms. Yet the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 0.75% on Wednesday because the US economy is too strong.
Market Update: Economy Weakens but Central Banks Persevere
Global investors tend to be quite US-focused, as the world’s largest economy has an outsized impact on trends across the world. Last week though, attention was on the other side of the Atlantic. European economic data caught the eyes of traders – and unfortunately not for the right reasons. Both consumer and business sentiment surveys indicated unexpected weakness, heralding a downturn across the continent.
Getting ready to retire?
Have you ever wondered what you need to consider as you approach retirement? Whatever your concept of what is a good pension pot, one certainty is that relying on the State Pension alone will not give you a good enough pension to live on comfortably through your retirement.
Market Update: Public Sentiment vs Economic Realities
Through much of this second quarter, the financial market narrative has been about inflation. Last week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) informed us that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 9% in April to 9.1% in May, while the Retail Price Index (RPI) rose 11.7% compared to May 2021. UK inflation-linked benefits for 2023 – including pensions – will be determined by September’s data sets, and means the state pension will almost certainly increase by more than 10%.
DPMS Portfolio Commentary November
As we are expecting the remainder of 2022 to remain volatile with further interest rate hikes and the effects of a recession, the Vizion Wealth Investment Committee have agreed to remain maintain a more defensive style to portfolios, further reduce exposure to Small-Cap Equities, balance our Chinese & Indian Equity exposure and start to increase positioning towards traditional fixed interest given the recent sell off of bond capital values.