Category: Market Update
Market Update: Weak links in the outlook
After a roller coaster week, markets end just a bit lower than when we started. Equity indices were mixed in their own currency terms. US investors will see their markets as slightly down, but US returns will look worse for international investors, thanks to another slip in the US dollar.
Market Update: Everyone take a small step forward
Global stock markets have started the year well, with most gaining during the first two weeks. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000 level last Friday for the first time in its history. Encouragingly, small and mid-cap stocks have led the rally, particularly in the US. That shows investors are growing more confident about global growth this year, shrugging off geopolitical worries. In fact, right now, the biggest risk for markets is that global growth might be too strong, prompting inflation in the second half of 2026.
Market Update: Start with a bang
Global stock markets have started the year well, with most gaining during the first two weeks. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000 level last Friday for the first time in its history. Encouragingly, small and mid-cap stocks have led the rally, particularly in the US. That shows investors are growing more confident about global growth this year, shrugging off geopolitical worries. In fact, right now, the biggest risk for markets is that global growth might be too strong, prompting inflation in the second half of 2026.
Market Update: A quiet break from the new normal
We have crossed from the old to the new year with a bit of cheer. While US equity markets have marked time, Europe’s broad market has hit a new high, and the FTSE 100 traded above 10,000 last week. China traded the first day of 2026 with a 2% gain.
Market Update: Rate cuts for Christmas
Last week had been the last week of liquid trading for 2025. The return of US economic data has sharpened the view that the US and other regions have had a soft patch. Interestingly, that clarity has helped rather than hurt markets. Investors think the Fed will react to weakness which means there is not much likelihood of economic recession or profit decline. Equity investors have continued to be a bit unsettled but the main worry remains that very profitable companies are very expensive, especially if those profits are not used for share buybacks.
Market Update: A dovish hawkish rate cut for Christmas
We are into the last active investment days of a truly remarkable year. After a short note on last week’s events, we offer some thoughts about 2025 and an outlook for 2026. Most equity markets were solid last week but this was one of the few occasions when the major tech firms underperformed. US cloud computing giant Oracle took another blow, when its earnings results showed debt-fuelled capex expansion had accelerated faster than sales.
Market Update: Bond markets win – again
Capital markets felt a little better in recent weeks, but with emphasis on “a little”. Global stocks gained incrementally through last week, putting most of the November market downdraft behind them. Underlying these moves is a genuine improvement in the economic outlook for next year. Interest rates are now certain to fall again and, even though there have been doubts over US and global growth momentum, corporate earnings have proven resilient.
Market Update: Next stop, Santa Rally?
Capital markets had a good week. Stocks and bonds gained virtually everywhere – particularly small and mid-cap companies. The most obvious rationale for this rally is a growing expectation of interest rate cuts, but we suspect this is just part of investors’ better mood.
Autumn Budget Update: What the Autumn Budget Means for You
Despite Rachel Reeves’ second budget as Chancellor almost being fully revealed by a leak in the Office of Budget Responsibility before it had begun, she set out an economic plan focused on creating a ‘fairer, stronger and more secure UK’ although the general theme was higher taxes that will eventually lead to nearly 920,000 new higher rate tax payers by 2029/30. Speculative rumours in anticipation of the budget included changes to the tax-free pension amount, reducing pension tax relief, inheritance taxation and capital gains, but these were unfounded allowing many to breathe a sigh of relief.
Market Update: And the roller coaster rolls on
Another topsy-turvy week ends with more volatility and lower markets. Stocks were boosted midweek, after investor darling Nvidia reported even better than optimistically expected corporate earnings growth for the previous and current quarters – a rejoinder to the crescendo of ‘AI bubble’ chatter. Nvidia was not even the best of the Magnificent Seven; Alphabet (Google’s parent company) rose as Warren Buffett bought into the company.
Market Update: History does not repeat, but it often rhymes
Stock markets rallied in the early part of last week, but sold off on Thursday and into Friday. At the time of writing, we are at or even below last Friday’s levels in most major markets. The lacklustre performance might seem a little strange considering the biggest news story of the week was an end to the longest ever US government shutdown, after President Trump signed a federal funding bill until the end of January.
Market Update: Bonfire but no rockets
After a pleasingly strong October, it was a tough first week of November in capital markets. Stocks sold off 2-3% virtually everywhere, and the biggest tech stocks were particularly vulnerable. Media commentary put this down to valuation vertigo – investors doubting whether future corporate earnings can live up to the promise of high price-to-earnings stock valuations. That is not quite how we see it, given there was no real new information about the shape of the global economy last week. The only change we observed was the steady deterioration of market liquidity. We keep saying it, but the drying up...
Market Update: Spend, Spend, Cut
Stock markets mostly continued their upward march last week, but the underlying picture is little changed from last Friday. Global growth and corporate profits look decent, geopolitics is not getting out of hand, but the pace of change and a tightening of liquidity also means a risky environment.
Market Update: Uneasily positive
Capital markets started last week calmer than they have been, and ended with yet more all-time-highs. However, investors remain uneasily positive. The mid-week saw more wobbles, and this patch of increased volatility could continue – thanks to tariffs, credit troubles and tighter liquidity.
Market Update: Another Bump in the Road
Global risk assets sagged last week. Initially, stocks bounced a little from last Friday’s US sell-off, after Trump appeared to do a customary TACO turn on Sunday. But, investment portfolios are now closer to where we started October than where there got to Thursday two weeks ago. Thankfully, government bonds prices rose, taking yields (their inverse) down. UK yields fell substantially, helping the government’s budget calculations.
Market Update: Healthy market rumours
Stock markets keep pushing at all-time highs earlier last week, but with less enthusiasm than a few weeks ago. Then, late on Friday, a renewed Trump tariff threat against China’s rare earth export restrictions was enough to immediately send markets down 2%.
Market Update: Market momentum reigns
Global stocks bumped up last week, recovering all of the previous week’s losses and then some. That is despite a US government shutdown that shows no sign of being quickly resolved. Previous funding gaps have hurt the world’s largest economy, but markets are choosing to ignore the noise. With politics no longer driving markets, corporate profits will almost certainly take the wheel.
Market Update: Markets wait for what’s next
Global stock prices have dropped last week, with most regional markets ending down. Some of this is end-of-quarter rebalancing of institutional portfolios. Institutional investors typically adjust their portfolios back to the original risk weights, a process which is equivalent to taking profits on the better performing assets. So, given the very strong equity rally over the last three months, it is predictable that equity markets will struggle as we head into the last week of September.
Market Update: Slowdown? What slowdown?
Rate cuts and record highs for markets last week. As wholly expected, the US Federal Reserve voted to decrease interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4% (the effective rate is about 4.1%), and signalled further cuts before the year end. The Fed gave investors what they wanted, leading to gains for small cap stocks in particular. The Bank of England was less forthcoming on Thursday – holding interest rates steady – but it announced some welcome adjustments to its bond selling program. All in all, this environment is very supportive for global stocks.
Market Update: Bond’s Split Personality
It had been another slightly confusing week for some investors. Markets mulled over last Friday’s weaker than expected US jobs report, but stocks kept climbing higher virtually everywhere. There were two big market action stories: a sizable fall in long-term government bond yields, and the outperformance of small cap stocks. These trends might seem in conflict but we think they are consistent.