Month: November 2024
Market Update: More and More Loose Ends
We are getting to that time of year when investment houses like us write their annual market outlooks. That is easier to do if the loose threads wrap themselves up before Christmas, but right now the opposite is happening. Uncertainty is growing, and it is creating a wide range of plausible medium-term scenarios. Some of them are very bullish for markets and the world economy, while others are more worrying.
Market Update: Reading Trump’s Tea Leaves
It was an up and down week for global stocks. Markets initially showed confidence in Donald Trump’s tax cut and deregulation agenda – but pulled back when Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested interest rate cuts might have to be gradual. The S&P 500 was flat for most of the week but tumbled this afternoon amid rising bond yields. This came against a backdrop of strong gains last week, a sharply higher dollar and weak equity markets in most other regions.
Market Update: Known winner, unknown outcomes
For the sake of investors, we hoped for a quickly resolved US election, and we got one. Capital markets responded well to Donald Trump’s surprisingly decisive win, with US stocks rallying from Wednesday on. Investors deemed it good news for the US, but less so for Europe and the UK, whose stocks had a tougher week. This side of the Atlantic, equities and currencies sold off and underperformed rampant US markets by a remarkable 5%.
Market Update: US, not UK battening down the hatches
Rachel Reeves’ autumn budget dominated the UK news last week, but global investors were yet again preoccupied with the US election. Both created market jitters for UK investors, culminating in a noticeable fall in global stock prices on Thursday. We wrote theweek before last that traders were bracing for a consequential and uncertain election – which could create volatility as trading volumes thin. That is exactly what we see happening. The good news is that the underlying economic picture has not changed. The bad news is that nerves will stay high until we know who the next US president will be – and we might...
What the Autumn Budget Means for You
Rachel Reeves' first Budget as Chancellor had the rumour mill in overdrive based on the tax uplift required to fill a blackhole in the public finances. The biggest single tax change from the budget designed to address that blackhole was a 2% increase in the rate of employer NICs. Many of the rumoured changes, such as a return of the pension lifetime allowance, changes to pension tax relief, investment incentives for EIS & VCTs or a cap on pensions tax-free cash failed to materialise, which is good news for individuals saving for retirement.