Category: Market Update
Market Update: It takes two to TACO
Stock markets pulled back over the last couple of days, as oil prices rose to around $100 per barrel (pb). Before that, equities had been holding up okay, particularly large cap stocks. Sterling has slipped about 0.5% against the US Dollar which has helped to offset some equity weakness, meaning global equity portfolios are only slightly lower. Bonds continue to be surprisingly weak, especially in the UK. The 15-year UK government bond now yields 5.16% (0.5% more than before the war).
Market Update: War disrupts energy markets
The Iran war has plunged markets into uncertainty with spot Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel (and having touched $120 pb) and European natural gas prices now more than doubled. European and Asian stocks have been hit harder than the US, and the dollar has risen – reversing recent trends.
Market Update: Outright war on Iran’s leaders begins
In response to the US-Israeli military strikes and Iran’s responses, markets have reacted in the way most would have expected.
Market Update: Volatility falls but it’s still cloudy
The US Supreme Court just announced that cannot use the Emergency Powers Act to impose reciprocal tariffs. Stocks rose, US government bond prices fell somewhat, and the dollar weakened slightly. The moves are positive but not yet meaningful. Much will now depend on Trump’s likely attempts to reimpose tariffs by other means, the potential trade disruptions, and who might be eligible for tariff refunds.
Market Update: Anxiety under the surface
Stock markets were flat in aggregate last week. That is an improvement over the frantic action we have seen recently and, towards the end of the week, there was even some relief for beleaguered tech stocks. Below the surface, however, things look less calm. Price volatility for individual stocks has stayed extremely high – even though volatility at the overall market level has dropped.
Market Update: AI trade starting to eat itself
US tech stocks dragged down overall global equity returns last week – the Nasdaq Composite index down nearly 3% in sterling terms. The AI theme that propelled the sector for years is now causing a crisis of confidence, over a potential growth shock. Other markets fared better. Japanese equities soared (and not merely due to currency impact), showing markets’ approval of Prime Minister Takaichi (not a fan of a strong yen) ahead of a weekend election she’s expected to win.
Market Update: Changing horses in the market race
Equity markets hit all-time highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, including a 1.5% gain for US stocks. But Microsoft’s earnings pushed the US back to where it started the week. The US tech giant’s spending and revenue figures reignited fears about an AI bubble, pulling down tech stocks slightly.
Market Update: Weak links in the outlook
After a roller coaster week, markets end just a bit lower than when we started. Equity indices were mixed in their own currency terms. US investors will see their markets as slightly down, but US returns will look worse for international investors, thanks to another slip in the US dollar.
Market Update: Everyone take a small step forward
Global stock markets have started the year well, with most gaining during the first two weeks. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000 level last Friday for the first time in its history. Encouragingly, small and mid-cap stocks have led the rally, particularly in the US. That shows investors are growing more confident about global growth this year, shrugging off geopolitical worries. In fact, right now, the biggest risk for markets is that global growth might be too strong, prompting inflation in the second half of 2026.
Market Update: Start with a bang
Global stock markets have started the year well, with most gaining during the first two weeks. The FTSE 100 broke through the 10,000 level last Friday for the first time in its history. Encouragingly, small and mid-cap stocks have led the rally, particularly in the US. That shows investors are growing more confident about global growth this year, shrugging off geopolitical worries. In fact, right now, the biggest risk for markets is that global growth might be too strong, prompting inflation in the second half of 2026.
Market Update: A quiet break from the new normal
We have crossed from the old to the new year with a bit of cheer. While US equity markets have marked time, Europe’s broad market has hit a new high, and the FTSE 100 traded above 10,000 last week. China traded the first day of 2026 with a 2% gain.
Market Update: Rate cuts for Christmas
Last week had been the last week of liquid trading for 2025. The return of US economic data has sharpened the view that the US and other regions have had a soft patch. Interestingly, that clarity has helped rather than hurt markets. Investors think the Fed will react to weakness which means there is not much likelihood of economic recession or profit decline. Equity investors have continued to be a bit unsettled but the main worry remains that very profitable companies are very expensive, especially if those profits are not used for share buybacks.
Market Update: A dovish hawkish rate cut for Christmas
We are into the last active investment days of a truly remarkable year. After a short note on last week’s events, we offer some thoughts about 2025 and an outlook for 2026. Most equity markets were solid last week but this was one of the few occasions when the major tech firms underperformed. US cloud computing giant Oracle took another blow, when its earnings results showed debt-fuelled capex expansion had accelerated faster than sales.
Market Update: Bond markets win – again
Capital markets felt a little better in recent weeks, but with emphasis on “a little”. Global stocks gained incrementally through last week, putting most of the November market downdraft behind them. Underlying these moves is a genuine improvement in the economic outlook for next year. Interest rates are now certain to fall again and, even though there have been doubts over US and global growth momentum, corporate earnings have proven resilient.
Market Update: Next stop, Santa Rally?
Capital markets had a good week. Stocks and bonds gained virtually everywhere – particularly small and mid-cap companies. The most obvious rationale for this rally is a growing expectation of interest rate cuts, but we suspect this is just part of investors’ better mood.
Autumn Budget Update: What the Autumn Budget Means for You
Despite Rachel Reeves’ second budget as Chancellor almost being fully revealed by a leak in the Office of Budget Responsibility before it had begun, she set out an economic plan focused on creating a ‘fairer, stronger and more secure UK’ although the general theme was higher taxes that will eventually lead to nearly 920,000 new higher rate tax payers by 2029/30. Speculative rumours in anticipation of the budget included changes to the tax-free pension amount, reducing pension tax relief, inheritance taxation and capital gains, but these were unfounded allowing many to breathe a sigh of relief.
Market Update: And the roller coaster rolls on
Another topsy-turvy week ends with more volatility and lower markets. Stocks were boosted midweek, after investor darling Nvidia reported even better than optimistically expected corporate earnings growth for the previous and current quarters – a rejoinder to the crescendo of ‘AI bubble’ chatter. Nvidia was not even the best of the Magnificent Seven; Alphabet (Google’s parent company) rose as Warren Buffett bought into the company.
Market Update: History does not repeat, but it often rhymes
Stock markets rallied in the early part of last week, but sold off on Thursday and into Friday. At the time of writing, we are at or even below last Friday’s levels in most major markets. The lacklustre performance might seem a little strange considering the biggest news story of the week was an end to the longest ever US government shutdown, after President Trump signed a federal funding bill until the end of January.
Market Update: Bonfire but no rockets
After a pleasingly strong October, it was a tough first week of November in capital markets. Stocks sold off 2-3% virtually everywhere, and the biggest tech stocks were particularly vulnerable. Media commentary put this down to valuation vertigo – investors doubting whether future corporate earnings can live up to the promise of high price-to-earnings stock valuations. That is not quite how we see it, given there was no real new information about the shape of the global economy last week. The only change we observed was the steady deterioration of market liquidity. We keep saying it, but the drying up...
Market Update: Spend, Spend, Cut
Stock markets mostly continued their upward march last week, but the underlying picture is little changed from last Friday. Global growth and corporate profits look decent, geopolitics is not getting out of hand, but the pace of change and a tightening of liquidity also means a risky environment.