Category: Market Update
Market Update: Market quiet on the Middle Eastern front
Capital markets have corrected at the same time as the conflict in the Middle East intensified, yet the asset price dynamics tell a different story.
Market Update: What the return of volatility tells us
Positive market sentiment is put to the test as US rate cuts seemingly disappear over the horizon and Europe, with less resilient markets, looks very likely to see the first cut in June.
Market Update: Bumpy start to the quarter
After such a strong six months, market volatility returned along with increasing oil prices, are economics and geopolitics or market dynamics to blame?
Market Update: Stick to the plan
Following their policy meetings, the big central banks presented the calm message that their plans are working, and markets are inclined to believe them.
Market Update: The flipside of inflation – growth
Of late European stocks are outshining their US peers even though Europe’s economies are mostly in recession – are diverging interest rates coming?
Market Update: At least currency markets notice the budget
Currencies proved to be the one mildly exciting market dynamic in a week otherwise shining more with what did not happen, rather than with what did.
Market Update: Winners and losers of stabilising yields
The ECB meets this week, and the BoE in two weeks’ time. Interest rate and yield volatility has calmed amid signs that some can now bear the cost of new debt. Is this a sign that we’ve reached an equilibrium?
Market Update: M&A activity sets growth against value
Consumer confidence is yet to catch up with business sentiment which is now driving a flurry of value seeking mergers and acquisitions.
Market Update: UK not growing really, not growing nominally
The UK has had no real growth for two years but last week’s 2023 Q4 GDP data confirms a slight recession. Should the Bank of England respond?
Market Update: US stock market entering bubble territory?
With the S&P500 US stock index breaking through the 5,000 mark for the first time, we discuss parallels to the dot.com bubble from 25 years ago.
Market Update: Central banks challenge Goldilocks assumptions
The apparent acceptance of later rate cuts kept markets going during January, but may be put to the test in February as US regional banks creak, once again, under the increased cost of refinancing.
Market Update: Positive growth sentiment returns
January is beginning to shape up rather nicely, after both positive growth sentiment as well as surplus liquidity staged a welcome return
Market Update: Data vs Davos
Was it the latest market data making early and substantial interest rate cuts unlikely, or the latest ‘news’ from leaders gathered in Davos, that caused bond yields to rise once again?
Market Update: A bumpy upwards path ahead
After the recent rally valuations feel elevated, yet the biggest risk to them is not whether the economy will grow again, but rather how fast.
Market Update: After the party, the hangover?
Following the impressive Santa Rally markets started 2024 on a less euphoric note, is this simply a correction from overbuying, or a genuinely bad start?
Market Update: Central bank Elves boost 2023 Santa rally
The scrooges of last year’s Christmas, US central bankers, put markets in a warm festive mood this week by surprisingly declaring ‘peak rates’ - is the US getting ahead of Europe and the UK once again?
Market Update: A bit of a downer
We review November’s cheery asset performance below. Early December is also currently on a positive track and trading volumes have been higher than November’s averages generally, suggesting quite a bit of capital is being put to work by investors.
Market Update: Higher for shorter on the horizon
As we have written here over the past weeks, the distinct turn in sentiment that drove markets in November was, once again, mostly about central banks and the likely path of interest rates. After October was about ‘higher for longer’, early November transitioned to ‘no more rate rises and the next move is down’, when inflation came down far more than most had expected. In this past week, we have heard discussions of Eurozone rate cuts in time for Easter.
Market Update: US economy slows to our pace
November remains a positive month in capital markets, although equities had a neutral week and longer bond prices have fallen back. UK government bonds (Gilts) have been the best performing bond market in the past few weeks, but the tax cuts announced in Wednesday Autumn Statement, although relatively minor, were enough to push the ten-year Gilt yield back up above 4.25% (rising yields mean falling bond prices).
Market Update: Inflation genie back in the bottle?
Last week was another good one for most investors. In sterling terms, the strongest equity markets were in Europe with the DAX up 4.5% since last Friday afternoon. The biggest winners have been small and mid-sized firms; the FTSE 250 has stormed up by 4.3% compared to a 1.4% increase for the FTSE 100. Likewise, the Russell 2000 (America’s most-watched market index for small and mid-sized companies) is up 5.1% in US dollar terms.